Chinese chipmakers have imported an estimated 343 of ASML's immersion DUV lithography scanners since 2012, and about 270 of them are the model best suited to making 7nm-class chips. That is the central estimate in a report from the Centre for Technology & Statecraft (CTS), a Washington research group set up in August. The South China Morning Post picked up the report on October 4, and Tom's Hardware followed on October 5. The authors, former US officials Nicholas Brown and Saif Khan, want all such exports to China banned. Their numbers, though, cannot be fully checked.

The 343 figure counts less than it appears to

The headline number is a cumulative count of ASML immersion DUV tools sent to Chinese-owned fabs from 2012 through the first quarter of 2026. It excludes tools bought by multinational fabs operating inside China, and it leaves out Nikon's immersion tools and older dry DUV machines, according to the analysis summarized by Xenospectrum.

CTS says 270 of the 343 are the NXT:1980i, which Tom's Hardware describes as a 38nm-resolution scanner with 2.5nm matched-machine overlay, the precision needed for multipatterning at 7nm-class nodes. CTS also counts 22 NXT:2050i and six NXT:2000i systems. Tom's Hardware adds a caveat that matters: it is unclear how many of these scanners are actually running, and while the total looks plausible, some of CTS's other estimates look questionable.

Two years of buying that CTS puts above $13 billion

The sharpest claim concerns 2024 and 2025. The Netherlands began requiring licenses for the NXT:2000i and more advanced models in September 2023, so Chinese buyers moved to the NXT:1980i. Dutch controls reached that model in September 2024, but individual exports can still be approved, per Tom's Hardware. CTS estimates Chinese fabs bought about 90 of them in 2024 and 89 in 2025, spending more than $13 billion.

Simple arithmetic puts that at roughly $73 million per scanner, derived from 179 units. Tom's Hardware compared the CTS unit counts with ASML's global immersion sales of 129 systems in 2024 and 131 in 2025. If CTS is right, Chinese fabs took about 70 percent and 68 percent of ASML's output in those years. Tom's Hardware stresses that ASML's published financials cannot reproduce the CTS figures, though they do show China was an unusually large destination. China's share of ASML's net system sales by shipment destination was 41 percent in 2024 and 33 percent in 2025, then fell to 19 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and 14 percent in the second.

The decline carries a useful point. If the CTS count is even roughly right, the buying window has largely closed already, so a new ban would act on tools not yet ordered and would leave the installed base untouched.

How an older scanner ends up printing 7nm chips

The scanners were designed for older nodes, but multipatterning lets a fab print finer features by exposing the same layer several times. Xenospectrum notes that TSMC's production record shows 7nm-class manufacturing is possible with DUV. The price is more process steps and, usually, lower yield. Tom's Hardware makes the same point that reassigning tools to a finer node comes at a cost, but that Chinese fabs have few alternatives.

Scanners are not the only constraint. The Xenospectrum analysis of the report says shortages of etching and deposition equipment also limit Chinese output, and that adding immersion DUV tools may not raise production of Huawei's Ascend 910C unless those bottlenecks ease. A stockpile of lithography tools is necessary for volume production but is not sufficient on its own.

The proposed ban and what it leaves out

CTS recommends prohibiting exports of all immersion DUV systems to China and restricting replacement parts and maintenance for machines at advanced fabs. Tom's Hardware says the proposal is consistent with the bipartisan MATCH Act introduced in April, which the South China Morning Post says targets China-wide limits on equipment China cannot easily make at home.

The weak point is domestic substitution. Tom's Hardware has reported that SMIC is testing a home-grown immersion DUV tool, and it has carried reports that a Shanghai firm, Aishengna, makes China's first domestic immersion DUV machines and that mass production has begun, though those are reports and not confirmed output. One analyst quoted by Tom's Hardware puts Chinese DUV technology at roughly where ASML stood in 2004.

Diplomacy offers little cover. Tom's Hardware noted that the recent Trump-Xi talks produced an AI-incident channel but no announcement on chip controls, which fits the pattern from the summit where neither side wanted AI rules. So the real question is timing. A ban helps only if it lands before Chinese-made scanners mature, and every month of delay narrows the gap between a stockpile that buys time and a domestic industry that no longer needs it.