Spain's prime minister has staked his government on a question about rent. Pedro Sánchez announced on Oct. 5 that the country would vote on Nov. 29, a year earlier than required, after parliament refused to back his emergency housing package. Most polls say the opposition PP would finish first and the far-right Vox would take a clear third, and one pollster, the state-run CIS, says nearly the opposite.

How a Housing Decree Became an Election

Sánchez's government approved the emergency measures on Sept. 29. They would have extended protection against eviction for vulnerable tenants, limited rent increases, regulated short-term and seasonal rentals and restricted purchases of homes by investment funds, according to Business Standard's account citing Reuters. On Oct. 2, parliament rejected the package, with the PP, Vox and the Catalan separatist party Junts voting against.

The government approved two housing decrees again on Oct. 6, including caps on rent increases and temporary limits on evictions, but they still need parliamentary approval. By then the election was already called. The prime minister said the measures were based on plain common sense and would protect the most vulnerable.

The Housing Numbers Behind the Anger

Spain has a shortage of about 750,000 homes, a figure the Bank of Spain expects to exceed a million by 2028, Reuters reported. The Youth Council of Spain says the average monthly rent of €1,176 equals roughly 98.7% of a young person's average monthly salary. Tenants, housing activists and residents have marched in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Málaga. The attempted eviction of an 87-year-old woman in Madrid, who died on Oct. 7, became a symbol of the crisis.

The country's two largest unions, UGT and CCOO, have called a nationwide general strike for Nov. 11, just over two weeks before the vote, Reuters said.

What the Polls Say

Almost every private poll shows the same shape. A 40dB survey for El País and SER gives the PP 31.9%, the PSOE 28.1% and Vox 18.9%, which Ara's poll roundup translates into roughly 132 seats for the PP, 112 for the PSOE and 66 for Vox. SocioMétrica for El Español, polling Oct. 1 to 3, has the PP at 143, the PSOE at 106 and Vox at 62. A seat projection by Vote-Scope gives 134, 106 and 64.

A majority in the 350-seat Congress needs 176. In SocioMétrica's poll, the PP and Vox together would reach 205 seats, or 206 with a seat from the small regional party UPN. In 40dB's numbers they fall short on their own but outnumber the left by a wide margin: PP, Vox and the minor party SALF add up to 52.6%, against 35.7% for the PSOE, Sumar and Podemos combined. For comparison, in July 2023 the PP won 137 seats and Vox 33.

The CIS, the government-run research center, paints a different picture. Its latest barometer shows the PSOE gaining 2.3 points compared with the 2023 election while the PP loses 10.9, according to the news site Democrata. The CIS does not publish an official seat estimate, but analyses based on its data give the PSOE about 152 seats, the PP 94 and Vox 63.

Democrata reported that two other studies it had seen put Vox near 75 seats, the PP around 124 and the PSOE below 120. I could not verify those studies.

A gap of roughly 40 seats between pollsters is unusually wide. The last few months in other countries offer a caution. Blogerroom reported that Flávio Bolsonaro beat the final polls in Brazil's first round, a reminder that no poll is an answer. In my view, the safer reading is the range: the private polls agree on an opposition lead, and the contest is over how far.

The Left Cannot Agree

Even a closer race may not help Sánchez if his allies split the vote. Sumar and Podemos poll at 5.3% and 2.3% in 40dB's survey, a combined 7.6%, and talks about a joint list have failed. Sánchez says he feels encouraged and optimistic, and told reporters in Brussels that if the left is not united in one way, it will be another. He also lamented the resignation of the PSOE figure Montse Mínguez, whom he had tried to persuade to stay on the lists.

Spain's electoral system rewards unity, because lists split by province waste votes. A divided left could cost seats even if its total vote holds.

Why the Rest of Europe Is Watching

A PP-Vox government would put another far-right party in a national coalition in a large European country. Blogerroom has followed the wider European picture, including the AfD winning the speaker's post in Saxony-Anhalt with help from the BSW. Spain's campaign will test whether a cost-of-living grievance, here rent, helps the government or the opposition.

What to Watch Next

First, the Nov. 11 general strike and whether it shifts the debate toward the government's proposals or away from it. Second, Vox's share: polls show it leading among voters aged 30 to 44 and ahead of the PSOE in the Canary Islands and of the PP in Andalusia, according to Democrata's roundup of GESOP surveys. Third, Junts, which blocked the housing package but has been a pivotal partner for the Socialists, and whether it takes a position before the vote.

My view: Sánchez has bet that voters will blame the parties that sank his rent caps. So far the private polls suggest the gamble is not paying off.