Only two of Alberta's 87 electoral districts voted in favour of starting a process toward separation, and in both cases the majority was slim, according to preliminary results reported by The Globe and Mail. Roughly three-quarters of voters in Monday's referendum chose to remain part of Canada. It is the headline everyone expected. The more interesting numbers are on the other nine ballots.

A clear answer to a carefully built question

The separation question did not ask Albertans whether to leave. It asked whether the province should remain a province of Canada or begin the legal process required to hold a later, binding referendum on separation. Premier Danielle Smith designed it that way after a Court of King's Bench judge quashed a separatist petition in May for failing to consult First Nations, Global News reported. She argued that because the vote would not directly trigger separation, the ruling did not apply.

The unofficial count showed about 75.3 percent for remaining, roughly 1.43 million votes, against 24.7 percent, about 471,000 votes, according to one tally of Elections Alberta's results. The premier had set the bar for the separation question at 50 percent plus one. Remain won by more than 960,000 votes.

CNN noted that it was the first plebiscite of its kind in Canada since the 1995 Quebec referendum, which was decided by a razor-thin margin. By that standard, Alberta's result is lopsided. The Globe reported that 47 of the province's 48 First Nations chiefs and councils had publicly opposed the question.

The nine questions that were closer

On immigration, the picture was narrower. All five questions on immigration and voting passed, with unofficial support ranging from about 54 to 64 percent, according to a tally of the results. The first four, covering more provincial control over immigration, limiting provincially funded programs, a 12-month wait for social supports and fees for non-permanent residents, were backed by roughly 54 to 57 percent. The proof-of-citizenship-to-vote question did best, at about 63 to 64 percent.

The four constitutional questions were the weakest. Backing for letting provinces choose senior judges, abolishing the Senate and giving provincial laws priority over federal ones passed with roughly 51 to 54 percent, and Question 8, on opting out of federal programs without losing funding, failed, with just over 51 percent voting no, according to Global News and other unofficial tallies.

Compare the results with the August polling. A poll cited by Open Data Canada had 65 percent backing Question 1 and 66 percent backing proof of citizenship, against actual results of roughly 54 and 63 percent. Question 9, on provincial law priority, polled at 46 percent and passed at about 51. Immigration support fell short of the polls, and constitutional support exceeded them.

What a "mandate" means with no threshold

Here is the problem for Smith. When asked about the threshold for questions 1 to 9, the premier was unclear about what level of support would count as a mandate, CBC reported on October 9. The results of the non-constitutional questions are non-binding on the government. Without a stated bar, a 54 percent result and a 51 percent result can both be called a mandate, and the question that failed can be dismissed as an exception.

The federal government has already staked out a position. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa and Alberta should work together to bring immigration down to sustainable levels before the province changes the Constitution to do so itself, according to CP24. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said he supports Smith's immigration asks, per the same outlet's live coverage. The federal immigration levels plan is due in November.

Smith, in a televised address on Tuesday, said she would use every legal and political tool to advance Albertans' interests, and that she has no interest in repeating a separation referendum while in office, The Globe reported.

What the 25 percent signals

Don't read 24.7 percent as noise. It is consistent with the polls, which ranged from 21 to 34 percent for the leave side in October, according to a compilation of surveys. The leave vote stayed in a similar range while the rest of the country rallied. Al Jazeera framed the result as a much-needed win for Carney as he tries to unify the country amid a trade war with the United States, and CNN described a rising tide of patriotism in Canada as it faces US tariffs and annexation threats.

A quarter of a province wanting to start the process, when the other side is winning decisively, is a political fact that will not disappear. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois won an election on about 28 percent of the vote while promising a referendum of its own, a reminder that a minority position can still shape a government. Alberta's separatists have none of that power. They have a number.

What to watch

Official results are due on October 29, and the unofficial counts could shift slightly. After that, the test is what Smith does with nine non-binding results. Pursuing constitutional negotiations on an opt-out that voters rejected would be hard to justify. Pressing ahead with immigration measures that passed, at levels well below what her own polls predicted, will test how far a narrow majority stretches.

A separatist leader, Jeff Rath, said the province will never become independent while an avowed federalist leads the governing party, according to Global News. It is a striking thing to say after winning a quarter of the vote. In his telling, the premier who put the question on the ballot is also the main obstacle to what the movement wants.

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